Snow Scare

Cold air meeting up with some moisture could give us some of the first flakes of the season this weekend!

It's a word that grabs the attention of everyone across Virginia -- snow. The mere mention of it can send kids into a frenzy and adults into a panic. Whether you love or hate it, there's an excitement in the air when we say that word for the first time of the season.

When we forecast the weather, we use many different computer models to help us. These computer models try to simulate the current state of the atmosphere and then forecast how the atmosphere will behave over the next few days. When it comes to winter weather, even the slightest change in track, temperature, or moisture can have huge impacts on our forecast.

Monday, our long range models began hinting at the possibility of some snow for this coming Saturday. Each consecutive model run has continued to point in that direction. It looks like a low pressure system will form near Cape Hatteras and then head off to the northeast. If this storm takes a more eastern track, the moisture won't make it here, leaving us high and dry. A more western track could lead to a better chance for rain and snow showers here. We've got a lot to watch and although this doesn't look to be a major system, it's our first chance of the season to see some flakes fall.

It's also interesting to me that the December 5th time frame has brought us snow over the past few years, especially in 2005, when we picked up around 4" of snow. It's too early to peg down any type of accumulation, but it's looking like this shouldn't be too big of a deal. This is just enough to get us snow lovers excited!

I welcome your comments on this blog. Do you like the snow or does it make you cringe? What do you like or hate about it?


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