We all know how terribly dry conditions have been for the past four or five weeks. The first 25 days of the month had us on course to set the record for the driest September ever. That all quickly changed Sunday and Monday as an upper low brought soaking rain to the area, which tallied up to between three and four inches across most of central Virginia.
Now we're facing the possibility of a tropical system approaching the area late Wednesday into Thursday. We use several different computer models to forecast how much rain will fall and right now there is some disagreement. Some of the models have the area of low pressure heading farther to the east, while some bring it closer to central Virginia. With the eastern track, we could still see more than two inches of rain by Thursday evening. If the western track pans out, we could see upwards of five inches by Thursday evening. Most of the latest information suggests that a more westerly track is being favored. Either track would pose some flooding concerns for us, but the western track would create the most problems. If five inches of rain falls, that would put the weekly totals for most of our viewing area between nine and ten inches. That kind of rain has the potential to cause some problems, especially in low-lying areas near rivers.
This forecast isn't set in stone, but there is definitely the potential for a significant rain event. Keep checking out www.cvilleweather.com over the next day or so for continuous updates and our Twitter feed can be found by following @CBS19Weather.