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Presidential Politics Predictions

By: Cheryn Stone Email
By: Cheryn Stone Email

October 13th, 2007

Political expert Larry Sabato gave a glimpse into his crystal ball for the race for the Presidency.

Sabato says every election is defined by the prior Presidency, and campaign 2008 will be affected by President Bush’s unpopularity.

“George Bush couldn’t get a Mother’s Day resolution passed,” Sabato said to a crowd at Alumni Hall at the University of Virginia Saturday.

Sabato says popularity polls have the President around a 30% approval rating, and that’s bad news for Republicans heading in 08.

Right now, Hillary Clinton may be the front runner for the Democrats, but Sabato calls her vulnerable. If she loses ground in Iowa, that could cause real change real fast.

“If she loses the momentum in that first state, suddenly anything is possible,” he says.

That could leave the door open for Barack Obama. But Sabato calls Obama’s campaign a disappointment so far despite fund-raising success and an appeal to a younger crowd.

Sabato cites political inexperience as a reason for Obama’s performance.

As for the Republicans, Sabato says the three who have a real chance are Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney, and Rudy Giuliani.

About Giuliani, Sabato says, “Rudy is doing so well because literally of these three he is probably the only one who has a chance to win in November.”

But Sabato adds come Spring, if people are dissatisfied with the party choices, there is plenty of time for somebody with name identification and resources to jump in the race for the White House.


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