Sabato Picks Election Winners

By: Michael Gorsegner
By: Michael Gorsegner

November 2, 2006

It's an annual tradition, political analyst and UVa Professor Larry Sabato looks into his crystal ball and predicts the outcomes of Tuesday's elections.

This year's mid term elections are embroiled in some of the tightest races all across the country including right here in Virginia. UVa Professor Larry Sabato says right now he is leaning towards Webb in this race.

"We edge this slightly to Webb because we have to pay attention to the last four surveys that have come out including one last night that have Webb up," he said.

Sabato believes the Dems might win as many as two thirds of the Gubernatorial races, as well as take back control of both the House and the Senate. The Senate is the close race and Virginia may be the deciding factor. However, Sabato says if Webb wins, it will only be because of Allen's missteps.

"If he wins, it will be because George Allen lost. It will not be because Webb convinced people he should be the Senator from Virginia," he said.

Sabato believes there are four main criteria that drive people to vote in the manner they do. In this election, the War in Iraq has trumped those other criteria which includes the economy, scandals, and even hot button social issues like the marriage amendment.

"[Iraq] is driving this election. That is driving it in all 50 states to the extent that they have tight races," he said.

Sabato said he may tweak some of his prediction as it gets closer to next Tuesday. However he said without any major missteps by the Democrats, it looks like it may be a big win for the blue.


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