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Sabato's Crystal Ball Projects Second Term for Obama

By: Jessica Cunnington Email
By: Jessica Cunnington Email

November 5, 2012

The election is less than 24 hours away and Larry Sabato at the UVa Center for Politics has made the final prediction.

The projection: President Obama will serve a second term and he will win 290 electoral votes to Mitt Romney's 248. They say Romney will take Virginia but not all of the key swing states.

"Obama has a narrow but steady lead in key swing states. Wisconsin, Ohio and Nevada which are the three states we're watching on election night. Mitt Romney's paths to victory really runs through those states, if he has any chance of winning. So, at the end of the day it looks like Obama's lead is just enough in those places," said political analyst, Geoff Skelley, at UVa's Center for Politics.

"Basically this a status quo election. We predict that Americans will choose to keep everything the same," Skelley said.

They say Hurricane Sandy played a big role at a critical campaign time. The storm forced Romney off the stage for three important days last week. This allowed President Obama to serve as "comforter-in-chief" when the nation really needed it, according to the Center.

After a long night, following all of the polls and studying all of the data, Skelley says they are confident in their projection for tomorrow.


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