Summer Weather Outlook for Central Va.

May 7, 2014

With summer quickly approaching, how's the weather looking for the months of June, July, and August? To get a good idea of what's going happen in the future, sometimes we have to take a step back and look at what's happening and what has happened across other parts of the country.

The Great Lakes were covered in a near-record amount of ice over the winter season and continue to be covered in about 19% of ice even today. Years with lots of ice cover generally spell out a cooler/near average summer across our area, but there's something else at play.

There's been a big ridge in the jet stream around Alaska, which has kept things quite warm in up there and across the western United States and it has also kept things quite dry across that region. The end result?

A big dip in the jet stream across the eastern third of the country that yielded a cold, snowy, and unsettled winter across most of the mid-Atlantic, the northeast, the Great Lakes, Midwest, and portions of the south.

Now, let's get into the forecast.

It looks like we will see a continuation of our winter/spring pattern for early summer. June through mid-July looks to feature near normal or slightly below average temperatures.

Things will change up a bit for the second half of the summer season. Beginning in the middle of July and lasting through August, we will have greater chances for above average temperatures and this could likely be when we see some of our hottest weather of the summer.

With regards to precipitation, expect it to be slightly wetter than average for June and into the middle of July, with drier than average conditions expected for mid-July into August.

Severe weather will likely continue to be below average for our area, due to the lack of hot and humid air for the first half of the summer. As it dries out for the second half of summer, this will also limit our severe weather potential.

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