September 30, 2010
Isaac Wood, writing for Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, has moved the 5th District Congressional race between incumbent Tom Perriello and challenge Robert Hurt from “Toss-Up” to “Leans R,” noting that “the momentum is firmly behind Republican nominee Robert Hurt.”
Wood explained his reasoning, saying:
"VA-05 (Perriello-D): The closest House race in the nation in 2008 is living up to its billing again in 2010. After a contentious seven-way GOP primary that stunted Republican fundraising and enabled incumbent Democrat Tom Perriello to sprint to an early cash advantage, it seemed possible that Democrats could hold this hard-won seat.
Now the momentum is firmly behind Republican nominee Robert Hurt, a state senator from the southern part of the district, who has matched Perriello ad-for-ad on television and led every single partisan and independent poll released so far.
The Crystal Ball cautions against counting out Perriello, who won one of the most stunning upsets of 2008, but this will be a far different year, and we are moving this race from Toss-Up to Leans R."