October 8, 2008
Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll conducted two months ago, Goode is down 9 points; Perriello is up 12.
While Perriello has momentum, he faces a six-term incumbent, which makes the race a very uphill slog for any Democrat, even in the most favorable possible climate for any Democrat to run in.
Goode leads by 17 points among men and by 11 points among women.
Among voters age 18 to 49, Goode leads by 4 points, down from 33 points two months ago. Among voters age 50+, Goode leads by 21.
Perriello takes 85% of Democratic votes, up from 67% two months ago. Goode today takes 89% of Republican votes, essentially unchanged from the previous poll. Independents break for Goode by a 2:1 margin.
Goode was first elected to Congress as a Democrat in 1996. Four years later, he switched parties and became an independent. In 2007, he switched to the Republican party, making him the first Republican to represent Virginia's 5th Congressional district since John Brown, elected in 1886. Goode is seeking his seventh term.
SurveyUSA interviewed 900 adults from Virginia's 5th Congressional District on October 6 and October 7. 822 of them identified themselves as being registered to vote. 680 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November 4th general election this year.