A Walk On the Warm Side! Summer Heat a Little Early

I break down why we can expect the warm temperatures this week and what meteorologists use to help forecast how hot we can get.

MGN Online

The seven day forecast sends us into the 90s all week long! Wednesday looks to be the hottest with highs around 95:

Average this time of year is in the mid 80s. We’ll be running 5-10 degrees above average to usher in the first day of summer on June 21st.

The jet stream surging to the north helps boost up our temperatures. Everyone along the eastern half of the United States will be feeling the heat. Some locations around the Mid-Atlantic could creep toward 100.

Below are the temperatures in Celsius about a mile and a half above the ground. Meteorologists often use this value to forecast what the surface temperatures will be since this air will ‘mix-down.’ These temperatures can be used during the summer on warm and clear days. This shows the temperatures in Central Virginia around 20°C at 8pm Wednesday (6/18) evening, so that puts us at about 35°C or 95°F for Wednesday afternoon (GFS Model 00z run 16062014).

What else can we expect? Thunderstorms. Warm temperatures at the surface can help create an unstable atmosphere for storms. Moisture supplied from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic also helps. The daytime convection can act as a trigger to initiate a storm, and that leads to "Afternoon Magic!"

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